The Announcement
On April 8, 2025, Ken Paxton announced his candidacy for the United States Senate, challenging incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn. The announcement came in the wake of — not despite — a record that includes felony indictments, impeachment by his own party, whistleblower firings, multiple affairs, a divorce, and documented patterns of abuse of office.
Over the following year that gamble paid off. On March 3, 2026, Paxton finished a close second to Cornyn in the first round of the Republican primary, denying the incumbent an outright majority and forcing a runoff. In the days before the May 26 runoff, Donald Trump endorsed Paxton — and Paxton went on to defeat Cornyn by a roughly two-to-one margin, becoming the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate. He now faces Democrat James Talarico in the November 3, 2026 general election.
For many observers, the Senate campaign represented the ultimate test of whether accountability still functions in American politics. Paxton's decision to run was a calculated gamble: that his base of support, forged through aggressive conservative positions and loyalty to Donald Trump, would outweigh the accumulated weight of scandal and legal jeopardy. The Republican primary electorate gave its answer.
No candidate with Paxton's legal and ethical record has ever been a major party's nominee for the U.S. Senate in modern American history. His candidacy is itself a referendum on whether such a record disqualifies someone from higher office.
Paxton Wins the Nomination
The March 3, 2026 primary set up a one-on-one showdown. With incumbent Senator John Cornyn taking roughly 42 percent of the vote and Paxton close behind at about 40 percent, neither cleared the 50 percent needed to win outright — Representative Wesley Hunt finished a distant third — and the contest went to a May 26 runoff.
The runoff was not close. Paxton defeated Cornyn by a margin of roughly 64 percent to 36 percent — about 28 percentage points. In doing so, Cornyn, first elected in 2002, became the first Texas Republican ever to lose his party's nomination for re-election to the U.S. Senate. The result made him the latest GOP incumbent to fall to a Trump-backed primary challenger.
The turning point came in the closing days, when Donald Trump formally endorsed Paxton and called him a "true MAGA warrior." For a candidate carrying felony charges, an impeachment, and a public divorce, the endorsement supplied the validation that overrode Republican voters' concerns about his record — the very outcome Paxton had been betting on since announcing.
Paxton ~64% · Cornyn ~36% in the May 26, 2026 Republican runoff. Paxton is now the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate and faces Democrat James Talarico on November 3, 2026.
Source: Texas Tribune, NBC News, Associated Press
The Record He's Running On
Ken Paxton is asking Texas voters to send him to the U.S. Senate while carrying the following record:
Securities Fraud
Felony securities fraud charges filed in 2015 for allegedly defrauding investors. Paxton recruited investors into a tech company without disclosing he was being paid to do so — a violation of Texas securities law. The case was pending for nearly a decade before Paxton reached a pretrial diversion deal in 2024 without trial, admitting no guilt but agreeing to restitution, community service, and legal ethics training. The charges were officially dismissed on June 18, 2025, after he completed the requirements.
Impeachment by the Texas House
Impeached by the Texas House of Representatives in May 2023 on 20 articles, including bribery, abuse of public trust, and obstruction of justice. The Republican-controlled House voted overwhelmingly to impeach. The Texas Senate acquitted him in a party-line vote, but the underlying facts of the case — trading official acts for favors from donor Nate Paul — were never disputed.
Whistleblower Retaliation
Eight senior deputies reported him to law enforcement in September 2020, alleging he abused his office on behalf of Nate Paul. Paxton fired or forced out the whistleblowers. Four of them sued for wrongful termination, and a court later awarded them $6.6 million in April 2025.
Corruption Involving Nate Paul
Extensive evidence of a quid pro quo arrangement with Austin real estate investor Nate Paul. Paxton allegedly used the AG's office to help Paul in exchange for personal benefits, including employing Paxton's mistress and remodeling his home.
Affairs and Divorce
Multiple extramarital affairs, including with a state senator and a subordinate aide. His marriage to state Senator Angela Paxton began unraveling publicly when she filed for divorce on July 10, 2025, citing adultery — nearly two years after his impeachment acquittal. The divorce proceedings remain ongoing as of early 2026, with property disputes and court records that were ultimately unsealed in December 2025 after media lawsuits. The personal conduct became a public issue when it intersected with his official duties and the Nate Paul corruption case.
Election Denial and January 6
Led the failed Texas v. Pennsylvania lawsuit attempting to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Spoke at the January 6 rally. Repeatedly promoted baseless claims of election fraud. His actions on behalf of Trump's false election narrative were central to his political brand heading into the Senate race.
Abuse of Office
Documented pattern of weaponizing the Attorney General's office for personal, political, and donor-related purposes. Used state resources to pursue personal vendettas, protect political allies, and reward donors.
This is not a normal political résumé. It is a comprehensive record of alleged criminality, documented corruption, and personal scandal — all of which Paxton is asking voters to overlook.
How Trump's Endorsement Decided the Primary
Paxton's political viability depended heavily on his relationship with Donald Trump. The Texas Attorney General spent years cultivating Trump's favor, most notably through aggressive and legally dubious efforts to overturn the 2020 election. The failed Texas v. Pennsylvania lawsuit — which legal experts widely condemned as frivolous — was widely interpreted as a bid for a Trump pardon on Paxton's pending securities fraud charges.
For most of the race, Trump stayed on the sidelines, and both Paxton and Cornyn openly courted his support. Trump had long-running tensions with Cornyn, who voted to certify the 2020 election and occasionally broke with him on key issues. That history made Cornyn vulnerable, but it was Trump's eventual choice that proved decisive.
In the days before the May 26 runoff, Trump formally endorsed Paxton, calling him a "true MAGA warrior." The endorsement reshaped the contest overnight, supplying the permission structure that let Republican primary voters look past Paxton's legal and ethical baggage. The roughly 28-point blowout that followed confirmed how essential that endorsement was — and how much Paxton's entire strategy had hinged on securing it.
Source: Texas Tribune, Associated Press, NBC News
Tim Dunn Walks Away
In a significant development, Tim Dunn — a West Texas oil billionaire who had been Paxton's biggest and most loyal donor for years — refused to back Paxton's Senate bid. Dunn, a major force in Texas conservative politics, had stood by Paxton through the securities fraud indictment, the whistleblower scandal, and even the impeachment.
But when Paxton announced his Senate campaign, Dunn walked away. The decision was widely seen as a signal that even Paxton's most committed financial backers had reached a breaking point. When your most devoted supporter — someone who stuck with you through criminal charges and impeachment — declines to fund your next campaign, it suggests fundamental doubts about your viability and character.
Dunn's withdrawal also had practical implications: Paxton needed to find new sources of major funding to compete with Cornyn, who entered the race with deep establishment support and a formidable fundraising operation. The loss of Dunn was a symbolic and strategic blow — yet in the end it did not stop Paxton, who rode Trump's endorsement and grassroots conservative energy to a decisive runoff win without his former patron.
Why Cornyn's Attacks Failed
The Cornyn campaign seized on Paxton's record, particularly the divorce and personal scandals. In a Republican primary, attacking a rival's personal life is traditionally risky — GOP voters often view such attacks as inappropriate or "going negative." But Paxton's record provided ample material that went well beyond personal conduct into the realm of criminal allegations and abuse of office.
Cornyn's strategy was to frame the race not as a policy contest, but as a choice about character and fitness for office. The campaign highlighted Paxton's legal troubles, the impeachment, the whistleblower retaliation, and the personal scandals as evidence that he was unfit to represent Texas in the Senate.
It did not work. Many in Paxton's base read the attacks as establishment elitism and disloyalty to a conservative fighter, and Trump's late endorsement effectively neutralized the character argument. When the votes were counted on May 26, Republican primary voters chose Paxton — record and all — by about 28 points, leaving Cornyn the first Texas Republican senator to lose renomination.
Source: The Hill, Texas Tribune
The General Election: Paxton vs. Talarico
Paxton's opponent in the November 3, 2026 general election is Democrat James Talarico, who won his party's nomination outright on March 3, defeating Representative Jasmine Crockett and avoiding a runoff. Talarico, a state representative from the Austin area first elected in 2018, is a former middle-school English teacher who holds a master's in education from Harvard and a Master of Divinity from Austin Presbyterian Theological Seminary.
The matchup reframes the stakes. Where the primary asked Republican voters whether Paxton's record disqualified him within his own party, the general election puts that record before the entire Texas electorate — moderates and independents included. Paxton carries the same felony charges, impeachment, $6.6 million whistleblower judgment, and personal scandals into a far broader and less favorable audience than a closed GOP runoff. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in roughly three decades, but Talarico's campaign is betting that Paxton's record makes this race the exception.
Source: Texas Tribune, CBS News, Associated Press
Where the Race Stands: The Polling
Public polling since the May runoff has shown one of the closest Texas Senate races in a generation. Every survey below falls within its own margin of error, which means none of them establishes a leader — the accurate description is a statistical tie.
| Poll | Field dates | Sample | MoE | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College / Nexstar | Aug 9–10, 2026 | 1,000 LV | ±3.0 | Paxton 47 · Talarico 46 |
| Texas Southern University | Jul 27–30, 2026 | 1,200 LV | ±2.8 | Talarico 47 · Paxton 45 |
LV = likely voters. Emerson: 5% undecided, 2% other. Texas Southern: 6% undecided, 2% for Libertarian Ted Brown. Polls are snapshots of a moment, not predictions; this table is updated as new surveys are released.
Averaged across the major aggregators, Talarico held a narrow edge through the summer — roughly one to two points as of mid-August. The Texas Tribune's tracker described the August Emerson result as breaking a run of surveys that had given Talarico a slight advantage. For a state that has not elected a Democrat statewide in about three decades, a race inside the margin of error in August is itself the notable finding.
The Emerson crosstabs show where the race divides. Voters under 50 backed Talarico by 15 points, 53% to 38%; voters over 50 backed Paxton by 11, 53% to 42%. Talarico led among Hispanic voters by 19. Neither candidate was well liked: Paxton drew 43% favorable to 44% unfavorable, Talarico 44% to 41%. The same survey put the governor's race at Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 45%.
Three Debates Scheduled
In July, Talarico challenged Paxton to a series of televised debates and accepted invitations from three Texas media groups. On July 16–17, Paxton's campaign said he would debate. The proposed schedule:
- September 22, 8 p.m. CT — NBC / Telemundo / Hearst, Rio Grande Valley
- October 6, 8 p.m. CT — WFAA / Tegna, Dallas
- October 13, 9 p.m. CT — KXAN / Nexstar, Austin
As of mid-August the campaigns had not agreed on formats, moderators, or terms, and no debate had been formally locked in. Whether Paxton appears on a debate stage — where his record would be raised in front of a statewide audience, without the option of ending the questions and walking off — remains an open question. He has spent much of his tenure avoiding unscripted press settings.
The Money: A Historic Fundraising Gap
The early general-election money race broke sharply against Paxton. For the second quarter of 2026 — April through June — Talarico's campaign reported raising more than $30 million, a record second-quarter haul for a U.S. Senate candidate, powered overwhelmingly by small donors, with roughly 97% of contributions of $100 or less. Paxton reported about $9 million over the same period, his best quarter to date, which his campaign cast as proof that conservatives were rallying to him. Talarico's total was more than triple Paxton's.
To close the gap, Paxton scheduled a July 22 Washington fundraiser headlined by Senate Majority Leader John Thune and other Senate Republicans, and set up a joint fundraising committee with the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Measured across the whole campaign, the disparity is wider still. Since the beginning of 2025, Talarico's campaign has raised a cumulative $72.0 million to Paxton's $16.8 million — less than a quarter of his opponent's total. By the Texas Tribune's accounting, Talarico has raised more at this stage than any Texas general-election candidate in the past decade.
Talarico: $72.0 million · Paxton: $16.8 million — a roughly four-to-one advantage for the Democratic nominee in a state Republicans have carried statewide for three decades.
Paxton's counter, offered in mid-August, was that the comparison is misleading and the momentum is turning. He noted that he began the general election on June 1 with "basically $0" while Talarico had just banked $30 million, argued that his opponent's money comes largely from California and New York, and said crowd energy had grown as voters returned from summer travel.
The Pen Ad
On August 14, 2026, the Talarico campaign released an ad built around one of the oldest and smallest items in Paxton's record: a $1,000 Montblanc pen taken from the Collin County Courthouse in 2013.
The pen belonged to McKinney attorney Joe Joplin, a gift from his wife, and he left it in the tray at the courthouse metal detector. When he could not find it, he asked a sheriff to review the security footage — which showed Paxton, then a state senator, picking it up and walking out with it. The Collin County Sheriff's Office contacted Paxton, who returned the pen. Joplin declined to press charges and no charges were filed; a Paxton spokesperson later characterized it as a simple mix-up. The episode was first reported by the Dallas Morning News in 2015 and surfaced again in Justin Nelson's 2018 campaign for attorney general.
In the 2026 ad, Joplin appears seated with the pen in front of him and delivers a single line: "I'm Joe Joplin, and I endorse James Talarico for the United States Senate." A Talarico spokesman, JT Ennis, drew the contrast the ad leaves unstated — Paxton is "the kind of guy who steals your pen," Talarico "the kind of guy who'd let you borrow his." The campaign ran it alongside a school-supply drive. The Paxton campaign had not publicly responded as of August 16.
The pen is trivial next to felony indictments and impeachment, and that is the point of the ad: it compresses a two-decade record into an object a voter can hold in mind. More on the pattern →
Questions About Property and Residency
Two investigations published in July 2026 put Paxton's personal finances and his home address at the center of the general election. On July 7, the Texas Tribune and ProPublica reported that he had voted in six elections while registered at a Collin County house he appears to have left. On July 16, the New York Times reported that Paxton and his trusts own at least 15 properties worth roughly $9 million — on a salary of about $153,000. He declined to answer questions on either subject at a July 21 campaign stop in Fort Worth and ended the press availability.
Paxton Reverses on IVF
In June 2026, Paxton struggled visibly with the Republican Party's internal divide over in-vitro fertilization. In mid-June he called himself a "strong supporter" of IVF and backed the federal IVF Protection Act sponsored by Senators Katie Britt and Ted Cruz, aligning with President Trump. About a week later, on June 27, he reversed, telling the Washington Examiner that "we need to have restrictions, so that we don't lose fertilized eggs, if that's possible," and declining to commit to national IVF protections. The shift moved him toward the Republican Party of Texas platform, which calls on lawmakers to protect fetal life from "destructive practices, such as IVF and commercial surrogacy."
What a Senator Paxton Would Mean
If elected, Ken Paxton would bring to the United States Senate a record unprecedented in modern American politics. He would be:
- The only sitting senator to have been impeached by his own state legislature — The Texas House voted to impeach him on 20 articles involving bribery, abuse of office, and obstruction. Though acquitted by the Senate, the underlying facts were never disputed.
- The only senator to have faced felony criminal charges while in office — The securities fraud case was pending for nearly a decade before being resolved through a settlement that avoided trial.
- The only senator whose top staff collectively reported him to law enforcement — Eight senior deputies made a criminal referral alleging abuse of office in September 2020. Those who were fired or forced out later sued.
- The only senator to have cost taxpayers millions in court judgments for wrongful termination and retaliation — A Travis County judge awarded four whistleblowers $6.6 million in April 2025.
- A senator whose personal conduct intersected with alleged official corruption — The affairs were not just private failings; they were central to the impeachment case, with allegations that Paxton used his office to benefit a donor who employed his mistress.
This is not a typical conservative-versus-moderate primary. It is a test of whether a candidate with this record can hold major public office in the United States. The outcome will send a clear signal about the state of accountability in American politics.
No person with a comparable record of legal and ethical violations has ever been elected to the U.S. Senate. Paxton's candidacy is itself a political experiment: can scandal be so normalized that it ceases to matter?
Source: Texas Tribune, Associated Press, Texas Monthly
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Ken Paxton running for Senate in 2026?
Yes — and he won the Republican nomination. Paxton announced his candidacy on April 8, 2025, forced incumbent Senator John Cornyn into a runoff in the March 3, 2026 primary, and defeated him by roughly 64% to 36% in the May 26 runoff. He faces Democrat James Talarico, a Texas state representative, in the general election on November 3, 2026.
Who is winning the Texas Senate race, Paxton or Talarico?
As of mid-August 2026 the race is a statistical tie. An Emerson College/Nexstar poll conducted August 9–10 among 1,000 likely voters (±3.0) found Paxton 47% and Talarico 46%. A Texas Southern University poll of 1,200 likely voters conducted July 27–30 (±2.8) found Talarico 47% and Paxton 45%. Every result falls within its own margin of error, and polling averages gave Talarico an edge of roughly one to two points.
Will Paxton and Talarico debate?
Paxton's campaign said in mid-July 2026 that he would debate James Talarico, and Talarico accepted invitations from three Texas media groups: NBC/Telemundo/Hearst on September 22 in the Rio Grande Valley, WFAA/Tegna on October 6 in Dallas, and KXAN/Nexstar on October 13 in Austin. As of mid-August the campaigns had not agreed on terms and no debate was formally confirmed.
What is the Ken Paxton pen incident?
In 2013, attorney Joe Joplin left a $1,000 Montblanc pen in a tray at the Collin County Courthouse metal detector. Security footage reviewed at his request showed Ken Paxton, then a state senator, picking it up and leaving with it. The Collin County Sheriff's Office contacted Paxton, who returned the pen. No charges were filed and a Paxton spokesperson called it a mix-up. In August 2026, Joplin appeared in a James Talarico campaign ad endorsing Talarico for the U.S. Senate.
Has Trump endorsed Paxton for Senate?
Yes. Trump endorsed Paxton in the days before the May 26, 2026 runoff, calling him a "true MAGA warrior." The endorsement is widely credited with powering Paxton's lopsided win over John Cornyn, who became the first Texas Republican senator to lose his party's renomination. Paxton's years of aggressive loyalty to Trump — including filing the Texas v. Pennsylvania election lawsuit — helped earn it.
Who is funding Paxton's Senate campaign?
Notably, Tim Dunn — Paxton's biggest longtime financial backer and one of Texas's most influential conservative megadonors — publicly refused to support the Senate bid. This was seen as a sign that even far-right funders had grown weary of Paxton's scandals.
What is Paxton's record going into the Senate race?
Paxton carries an unprecedented record including felony securities fraud charges (resolved without trial), impeachment on 20 articles, a $6.6 million taxpayer-funded whistleblower judgment, multiple affairs, a divorce, documented patterns of abuse of office, and a role in the January 6 rally.